Watchmaking Predictions 2024
Daniel PintoThe watchmaking year officially kicks off with Watches & Wonders in Geneva at the beginning of April, so just like every year, it's time for the eagerly awaited, and usually incorrect, LOFT Watch Predictions 2024.
A restructuring of the watch industry is anticipated, with mergers and acquisitions driven by market changes and the post-pandemic economy, while marketing strategies adapt to new platforms like Meta and Google. Furthermore, a revival of Universal Geneve under Breitling and a resurgence of interest in vintage watches from the 1980s and 1990s are predicted.
We're not going to talk about the return of small watches, Rolex prices, blah blah blah, and all those over-the-top topics bombarding us on YouTube from all the industry "experts" who arrived during the pandemic. We're here to take a risk with bold and original predictions, based on facts, combined with the insider knowledge of the industry we've been cultivating firsthand over the past 15 years.
The first thing we need to know is that, while the overall figures for 2023 paint a very positive picture for the industry, the realities within that number are very different across brands and groups. Big winners like Rolex, Cartier, AP, Patek, and Richard Mille pulled even further ahead of their competitors, leaving other brands with negative growth figures and more questions than answers. This brings us to the first prediction for 2024:
1. Mergers and consolidation
We already saw this last year with Bucherer-Rolex, Universal Geneve, and Hodinkee-Crown and Caliber. This year, we expect to see some of the smaller brands absorbed by one of the larger groups. The post-pandemic hangover, with a cold economy and a social media algorithm that seemingly only wants to showcase Daytonas and Royal Oaks, has left many brands struggling to attract younger customers. Others are trying to compete in the entry-level segment against the Apple Watch without much success, and still others are simply struggling to maintain their margins in a scenario where the costs of selling luxury watches have grown exponentially, due to rising marketing costs on platforms like Meta and Google.
The LVMH group will surely be looking to expand its brand portfolio to continue gaining market share. It could be that the Richemont Group acquires some of the independent watchmakers who are going through a difficult time. There could even be a merger between a group of independent watchmakers to generate economies of scale and open a profitable distribution channel of their own. Only time will tell if we're exactly right on this one, but rest assured that this year we'll see moves of this kind that will shake up the industry. That's guaranteed.
2. The rebirth of an old icon
I'm sure this year will see the launch of the first watch from the recently resurrected Universal Geneve. Following the brand's acquisition by Partners Group, the same owners of Breitling, Georges Kern's influence should be evident from the very first minute. Between the famous chronographs of the Compax line—who doesn't know the wonderful "Nina Rindt"?—and the Polerouters designed at the time by a very young Gerald Genta, Kern's team has a wealth of history and design inspiration. The fact that Breitling now produces its own movements could mean Universal will share technology, which could surely accelerate the release of one of the most eagerly awaited relaunches in history for those of us who love the brand. If Kern manages to conjure the same magic that has put Breitling in the Top 10 Swiss brands, we can rest assured that 2024 will be a monumental one.
3. The new Vintage
Since the pandemic, and even before, we've been in a cycle where social media dictates what's "cool" and shapes market values. And as we all know, the algorithm in recent years has only been interested in modern, new watches, and very specific models from a few brands. This has exploded the market for modern watches like the Ceramic Daytona, the Royal Oak, and Patek's Nautilus and Aquanaut. That is, cutting-edge sports watches that trade on the secondary market for several times their retail value, without necessarily being scarce or having great horological merits. This year, that will change. The focus will no longer be exclusively on new watches; we will once again see a vintage renaissance. But not just any vintage . Surely, the usual suspects will continue to be the stars of the auctions (their prices remain stable, without major changes), but as the generation born in the 1980s and 1990s begins to improve their financial situation, we will see an explosion in demand for collectible watches from that era.
The Piagets, Blancpains, Breguets, Ebels, Seikos, Omegas, and Cartiers of the 1990s, brands that were pushing the boundaries of what was possible in terms of design and technology, will be the new stars of the vintage, or rather, "neo-vintage" world. These are watches old enough to have nostalgic value and distinctive design, but at the same time new enough to be enjoyed every day. Their more affordable prices also favor this, a reality far removed from the Paul Newman Daytonas or Pateks of the mid-century, which must live out their sad lives inside a vault and never on a happy wrist. In this decade, we find incredible complications and innovative materials at a fraction of the price of a boring new steel watch from a recognized brand. We're talking about pilot watches with split-seconds, the James Bond watch, perpetual calendars in 40-millimeter gold cases, and some of the most iconic designs of the century; all for under $5,000! Don't say we didn't warn you, this year marks the beginning of the 90s boom, and it's the best opportunity to take advantage of surfing the web to find that little gem you couldn't have at the time, full of nostalgia, that's waiting for you today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vhCBg_CiXw
